Free tool

Must-hit-by calculator

Must-hit-by meter math with your own numbers. See where the line is, whether the meter is above it, and how much play it should take. The example below is made up, not a real machine.

The machine

Made-up example

Base game return is what the game pays back without the jackpot. Use 85 to 90 if you don't know it; lower is safer. Each game's meter rate is in its Game Pass guide.

Don't know the meter rate? Measure it

Write down the meter, play 10 to 20 spins at the same bet, then write it down again. On a linked bank, measure when nobody else is playing.

Measured rate: --
Must hit by $500.00 Check the numbers

Expected profit

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The line (breakeven)
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Average jackpot
--
Average play to hit
--
Average spins
--
Average base-game cost
--
If it runs to the cap
--

Assumes the hidden trigger is equally likely anywhere between the meter and the cap, and that you're the only one feeding the meter.

How the math works

When a must-hit-by jackpot resets, the machine picks a secret trigger point somewhere up to the cap. If the meter hasn't paid yet, the trigger is somewhere between the meter and the cap, so on average it lands halfway.

  • Average jackpot = (meter + cap) ÷ 2
  • Average play = (cap − meter) ÷ (2 × rate)
  • Expected profit = average jackpot − (1 − base return) × average play
  • Breakeven meter = cap × (1 − base − rate) ÷ (1 − base + rate)

Stacked levels, free-games meters and linked banks change the answer. The Game Pass guides cover each game's version.